Sometimes I sit on my back porch and just listen to whatever is out there in the national forest we call home. There's some strange sounds coming out of some of the birds, at least I hope that's what they are. I had a post about it written, but I scrapped it for a reason I can't remember. For some reason, I've found that this sitting and listening helps me get my mind around some thoughts I have problems grasping. Occasionally, music comes along, but since it wouldn't embed, I will just post the link.
Link To The Song I Just Mentioned
Anyway, the thought I've had trouble wrapping my head around was an essential one in my professional growth. Timing is everything. To quote my father: "you have to be patient enough to let happen what will happen, but impatient enough to force what won't happen to happen." That may not be word for word since my wife claims we have our own language in my family, but it is close. I agreed with him at the time, but the more I think about it, the less I really understand that statement.
So here I sat on the back porch and I pondered this. I've been looking for a farm for 2 years, though only "aggressively" since January. That's the context of my father's quote. At first, it seems simple enough, but as I think about it, how do I know what will happen? If I don't know what is going to happen, how do I know what to wait for and what to make happen? The more I think about it, the more I convince myself to take a leap of faith. It's risky, but if risk wasn't fun, Vegas would just be a barren patch of desert in Nevada. At the same time, doing this could have opportunity costs of what could be better in the long run. Without the short-term risks, there may not be a long-term opportunity. It's a never ending cycle. I know that's a vague description, but an explanation would be a post in itself.
Friday, May 24, 2013
Monday, September 24, 2012
Why I Don't Own a Flat Screen TV
Wow, it has been forever since I posted on this blog, but a friend of mine from high school likes posting things on Facebook that I really can't resist commenting on. This is especially true when it's about politics and economics at the same time. I'm a sucker for it, but luckily, he's not offended by my assertions I'm right, and is capable of making a logical assertion that I'm wrong. It stimulates thought instead of provoking ill will, at least in my mind (he may want to kill me, but we both agree on matters of gun control..........I think). Anway, here is something that I posted, that I thought might have more value than just a comment on Facebook.
Most people wouldn't justify not buying a flat screen because it costs them 3700 in 30 years to spend 1000 today, but it's how the wealthy think. Most people just think about that TV. I use it justify buying cattle though. The Millionaire Next Door would blow a lot of people's minds about what "wealthy" really means in monetary terms. It's fairly cheap on Amazon. Rich Dad Poor Dad is another one. I am not flawless in my quest to save money. Clark Howard makes me look like a wasteful spender, but he's the master of not spending money. Either way, it is better to save for tomorrow than today. Here is my logic behind it.
I wish this was there when I was in college (believe me, I searched). This is a pretty comprehensive view of the variations on the TVM function, but I mostly posted it for mathematical proofs if you don't believe me. It's probably easier to read my numbers since I did the math assuming a 4.5% interest per year.
"Time Value of Money" basically means that if you invest 100 today, you expect to see 100 + # in a set period of time. Basically if you want to have a million dollars in 30 years (retire at 55?), assuming a 4.5% rate of return annually, the function would read PV = 1,000,000/(1+.045)^30. PV = $267,000.02 in a lump sum. Of course, then we throw continual payments into the mix. This is also how loans are calculated (but if you want more detail, send me a message). It'll take $16391.54/year to have $1 million in 30 years. It'll pay 45K per year without losing value, but if you figure you'll only make it to 70, it'll pay you $93,113.81/year for 15 years.
Now, that seems nearly impossible, but the good news is, that you don't have to put away $16,000 this year. Most of us at my age (25 years old) are going to work until we're about 60-65. That gives us only $9343.15 per year in payments. If you make a monthly payment instead, the payment actually drops to roughly $750 per month. That new shiny car could cost you a million dollars. At 30% of income, that would mean you only make $30,000 per year. With the current tax rate, you'd have to have pre-tax income of roughly $40,500. Still, where there is a will, there is a way and these are just rough numbers so don't fret if you're not making this much money per year. There are also plans that are based on increasing payments and all other types of formats, but they're harder to calculate.
A calculator is found here in an easy to use format.
PV = How much money you have today. I like to use 0.
Rate = Interest Rate or how much you expect to gain. 3.5-4.5 per year is a fairly safe investment strategy. You won't get rich quick. Of course, nothing is 100% and investing does have risks of loss. Diversification will help that and consulting a professional is always recommended. Some would argue that 4.5% is bold right now, but I think it can still be done.
PMT = Payments. 0 will calculate lump sum investments and their gains
FV = How much money you get paid at the end.
Periods = Years, months, or whichever denomination you choose from the drop down box.
There are infinite ways to increase personal wealth. The path to increasing the wealth of nations lies within the path of increasing individual wealth. That is best done individually, but we all benefit from economic growth.
Monday, January 9, 2012
The Wolf in Sheep's Clothing.
As a small farmer, it is often misconstrued that the large farms are trying to destroy me and run me out of business. While there may be a slight truth to the idea, it's by and large a false statement. As I have said before, I come from a family of agriculture. My parents have been falsely stated to be "the enemy" while simultaneously helping me. Agriculture, however has many enemies. The largest enemy of animal agriculture is Animal Rights disguised as "Animal Welfare." I am a big fan of welfare when speaking of my cattle. I will actually probably be going out in the cold, foggy, rainy night to put hay out (not because they NEED it) but because it will quell my mind's pacing about "what if." I am not, however a fan of outright disinformation in an attempt to misconstrue the truth in a negative manner against agriculture. One example that I posted on some animal rights Facebook pages has NEVER been answered. My example is "swine flu" or it's proper term A(H1N1)pdm09.
We'll start with The "Humane Society" of the United States. This is a humane society in name only. It's really a political lobbying group that is money and power hungry. They will lie in an attempt to further their legislative and monetary goals.
Is it still even called "swine" flu?
To protect pork exports and deter countries from indiscriminately killing pigs, many have dropped use of the term "swine." The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has decided instead to call it "swine-origin" influenza now, which is accurate, but people have been raising pigs and chickens in their back yards for thousands of years before the triple hybrid mutant ancestor of this virus was first detected on U.S. factory farms. "Factory farm flu" might therefore be more accurate.
To simplify the statement, since people freaked out over pork, the word swine was made into "swine-origin" however HSUS believes that it should be called "Factory farm flu" instead. Farm Sanctuary, PeTA, and others also make a similar stance on their pages. The lies have big "donate" or "take action" buttons on the page. Here's why you should take another action that I'll mention at the bottom of the page.
The problem, however, lies in the data. First to be noted, Type A H1N1 influenza is separately common in humans and swine, however not in a quadruple reassortant virus form as the pandemic influenza was/is (the first flaw of the above quote). Tragic as it was, I will use honest sources that really have no connection to agriculture or animal rights.
I do not discount the death of anybody and no human death is a statistic. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show the statistical impact of H1N1 influenza. Approximately 61 million people were afflicted by this virus in everything from minor to major ways.
Here's an interesting statistic to follow that one. According to the quote from HSUS, The CDC changed the name from "swine flu" to "swine-origin influenza." If that's the case, the statistics posted above would match the following statistics of those who have been diagnosed with Swine-origin Influenza. They do not match nor are they remotely close.
"As of December 31, 2011, 35 cases of human infection with variant influenza viruses [from swine] have been reported in the United States since 2005. Of these 35 cases, 13 have been trH1N1v viruses, 20 have been trH3N2v viruses and two have been trH1N2v viruses."
"Where did swine flu come from?
The genetic fingerprint of the virus was just published, and the main ancestor of this deadly virus is a triple hybrid mutant first found on factory farms in the United States in 1998. The H1N1 swine flu virus has been described as "the product of intensive farming.""
To make this more complicated, the actual terminology of the variants is completely different. I used it earlier, but it can be found here. As you can see, there is no swine-origin to the influenza HSUS mentions. So why, exactly is it called "swine flu" if it didn't come from swine? The CDC offers a response to this question.
"This virus was originally referred to as “swine flu” because laboratory testing showed that many of the genes in the virus were very similar to influenza viruses that normally occur in pigs (swine) in North America. But further study has shown that the 2009 H1N1 is very different from what normally circulates in North American pigs. It has two genes from flu viruses that normally circulate in pigs in Europe and Asia and bird (avian) genes and human genes. Scientists call this a "quadruple reassortant" virus."
The statement made by HSUS is that the disease came directly from agriculture, however the data, facts, and information all state otherwise. It never ceases to amaze me that HSUS can outright lie to the general populace of Americans under the guise that they are saving shelter pets (though you should read through their taxes for an interesting find) while simultaneously lying about agriculture and lobbying against it and threatening ballot initiatives in which they would spread propaganda in urban areas to push their will against the minority of the population, in this case, farmers. This is all done under the tax-free protection of a 501(c)3 structure.
I personally recommend stopping this by using the following link (will redirect you in this window) to petition the IRS to re-examine the true purpose of HSUS.
Friday, December 2, 2011
Young and Beginning Farmers
I'd like to give a special shout out to http://www.facebook.com/farmersarecool for giving me this idea.
The Facebook page listed above is a page promoting small, local farms. I found this article there. Don't worry if you don't want to click the link. I'll quote it when necessary, but it is an interesting read and there is a video form of it as well. I'm not familiar with the news source, but this seemed to be cut and dry, lacking any major bias.
To summarize, the story is about how new farmers are facing some tough realities in the market place. "Accurate data are hard to come by, but a recent survey by organic farm networks found 78 percent of new farmers were not raised on farms." The reason cited for this, at the very beginning of this article is a disdain for "industrial farming" and in all honesty, I commend the folks that are willing to do something about it. I do, however see some flaws in the business model.
The main flaw I find:
"Demand for locally raised food is growing as well, into a business that is now worth at least $5 billion, according to the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture data.
It's still a drop in the bucket in the U.S. food supply. And many who venture into farming find the business realities are tougher than they thought. Maureen Moody says many burn out after a couple years and look for jobs with health benefits and retirement plans."
The business aspects of agriculture are not an easy science to understand. Today's markets have a lot of volatility and a lack of initial cash flow and income are difficult for somebody just out of college. As a graduate of the class of 2010, trust me, I know.
As a member of a farming family (my parents have 3 contract chicken houses and raise somewhere in the realm of just under 1,000 feeder calves per year) I may have had the blessing of knowing this before I got started. I guess I'm the industrial farmer disdained in the article. I, however, believe that it will take ALL types of agriculture to offer the choices consumers want in the future. Hopefully somebody can benefit from my business planning model below. This is not something that I thought up, but what my father did, what his father did and so on. I am lucky enough to be doing it now, and in the interest of agriculture, I'm willing to share. I'm also open to sharing more in depth specifics of the plans I have that maybe someone could apply to their situation on a person to person level.
The first 5-10 years of my business model are in a job that isn't necessarily high paying, but gives me enough income that I can pay electric bills, cell phone bills, gas bills, and still eat. Try to avoid travelling jobs unless you feel for certain that travel is during the off season. In a separate financial pool I keep my farm income. The farm income pays for expansion of the farm. Since I have a job to pay for my living expenses, I don't have to have a lot of income right now on the farm so I'm less exposed to high risk markets. I went from having no equity (I was $2,000 in the hole last year with 0 equitable assets) in 40 cows last year to having $10,000 net assets this year. I will have roughly 30% equity in 50 cows this year. Next year, my goal is to have 45% equity in my cattle, and in 5 years, I hope to have 50 cows with 100% equity. This allows me at least a hedge against periods with low income as I can have at least some operating credit against those cows. Currently, I don't own the land that houses those 50 cows. In the next 10 years, I plan to own the land where my cows are. It will probably be in an area where the market is better suited for my needs.
The downside to this system is pretty obvious. On any given week I can "work" anywhere from 45 hours to 100 hours depending on what needs to be done. The reason I say "work" is because I, at this stage, consider time on the farm to be an enjoyment rather than a job. This is, however completely backward from the business model mentioned in the quote above.
The key in all of this is love what you do. If you truly love agriculture, you can make it work in all sorts of creative ways. This is not a business with cookie cutter molds of business practices. Marketing is the main game-changer in all farms from the ones with 5 chickens, 2 cows and a goat, along with a 5 acre garden to the feedlot that has a 100,000 head capacity.
According to the USDA, half of all current farmers in the U.S. are expected to retire in the next decade. With an agricultural population that is aging, agriculture will create opportunities that few other industries can offer. It is a great time for young people to get into agriculture and an even better time for them to get creative and raise the highest quality food possible in a successful business model.
The Facebook page listed above is a page promoting small, local farms. I found this article there. Don't worry if you don't want to click the link. I'll quote it when necessary, but it is an interesting read and there is a video form of it as well. I'm not familiar with the news source, but this seemed to be cut and dry, lacking any major bias.
To summarize, the story is about how new farmers are facing some tough realities in the market place. "Accurate data are hard to come by, but a recent survey by organic farm networks found 78 percent of new farmers were not raised on farms." The reason cited for this, at the very beginning of this article is a disdain for "industrial farming" and in all honesty, I commend the folks that are willing to do something about it. I do, however see some flaws in the business model.
The main flaw I find:
"Demand for locally raised food is growing as well, into a business that is now worth at least $5 billion, according to the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture data.
It's still a drop in the bucket in the U.S. food supply. And many who venture into farming find the business realities are tougher than they thought. Maureen Moody says many burn out after a couple years and look for jobs with health benefits and retirement plans."
The business aspects of agriculture are not an easy science to understand. Today's markets have a lot of volatility and a lack of initial cash flow and income are difficult for somebody just out of college. As a graduate of the class of 2010, trust me, I know.
As a member of a farming family (my parents have 3 contract chicken houses and raise somewhere in the realm of just under 1,000 feeder calves per year) I may have had the blessing of knowing this before I got started. I guess I'm the industrial farmer disdained in the article. I, however, believe that it will take ALL types of agriculture to offer the choices consumers want in the future. Hopefully somebody can benefit from my business planning model below. This is not something that I thought up, but what my father did, what his father did and so on. I am lucky enough to be doing it now, and in the interest of agriculture, I'm willing to share. I'm also open to sharing more in depth specifics of the plans I have that maybe someone could apply to their situation on a person to person level.
The first 5-10 years of my business model are in a job that isn't necessarily high paying, but gives me enough income that I can pay electric bills, cell phone bills, gas bills, and still eat. Try to avoid travelling jobs unless you feel for certain that travel is during the off season. In a separate financial pool I keep my farm income. The farm income pays for expansion of the farm. Since I have a job to pay for my living expenses, I don't have to have a lot of income right now on the farm so I'm less exposed to high risk markets. I went from having no equity (I was $2,000 in the hole last year with 0 equitable assets) in 40 cows last year to having $10,000 net assets this year. I will have roughly 30% equity in 50 cows this year. Next year, my goal is to have 45% equity in my cattle, and in 5 years, I hope to have 50 cows with 100% equity. This allows me at least a hedge against periods with low income as I can have at least some operating credit against those cows. Currently, I don't own the land that houses those 50 cows. In the next 10 years, I plan to own the land where my cows are. It will probably be in an area where the market is better suited for my needs.
The downside to this system is pretty obvious. On any given week I can "work" anywhere from 45 hours to 100 hours depending on what needs to be done. The reason I say "work" is because I, at this stage, consider time on the farm to be an enjoyment rather than a job. This is, however completely backward from the business model mentioned in the quote above.
The key in all of this is love what you do. If you truly love agriculture, you can make it work in all sorts of creative ways. This is not a business with cookie cutter molds of business practices. Marketing is the main game-changer in all farms from the ones with 5 chickens, 2 cows and a goat, along with a 5 acre garden to the feedlot that has a 100,000 head capacity.
According to the USDA, half of all current farmers in the U.S. are expected to retire in the next decade. With an agricultural population that is aging, agriculture will create opportunities that few other industries can offer. It is a great time for young people to get into agriculture and an even better time for them to get creative and raise the highest quality food possible in a successful business model.
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Sparboe Farms Open Letter
An update on Sparboe Farms can be found here. I must state gratitude to the President of Sparboe Farms for correcting the issues found.
To whom it may concern:
My name is Zachary Bray. I'm a young, beginning farmer. On Friday, November 18th, a video surfaced depicting what I would consider abusive actions against birds in the care of Sparboe Farms. I state this as someone who has seen poultry from a first hand point of a view while my parents have 3 breeder houses for a competitor.
I have different emotions going through me as I see this video at different times. Upon the first time I watched the video, I watched to verify that what I saw was abusive. Upon the second time, I was angered. The third time I watched this video I was ashamed. I urge you to take a look at social media sometime in the near future.
The problem I find with this video is that now, not only are the actions of the individuals in this video reflections of those individuals, but will now be said to be reflections of "the industry." This a false, at best logical leap of faith, that is being made. The statement that this is just business as usual isn't just false, but disinformation in its finest moment.
Sparboe farms has put up a website and is putting a lot of money into their public relations to increase transparency. They owe it to the rest of us to clean this mess up. I also would like to see an apology to the industry overall, but most of all, I want to see that the employees depicted are never hired in animal agriculture again. It's also time to see the US Poultry and Egg Association, along with other organizations within the industry to come to terms with a complete welfare package. It's time for all of us to stand back and assess our own situations, and our own employees along with ourselves honestly. Healthy livestock are productive livestock. If we cannot honestly state that we are doing everything within our power to ensure, beyond a shadow of a doubt that our animals are as healthy and humanely treated as possible, that we seek out the assistance needed to solve this problem.
Sincerely,
Zachary Bray
Owner/Operator/Farmer
LZ Livestock Company, NC
To whom it may concern:
My name is Zachary Bray. I'm a young, beginning farmer. On Friday, November 18th, a video surfaced depicting what I would consider abusive actions against birds in the care of Sparboe Farms. I state this as someone who has seen poultry from a first hand point of a view while my parents have 3 breeder houses for a competitor.
I have different emotions going through me as I see this video at different times. Upon the first time I watched the video, I watched to verify that what I saw was abusive. Upon the second time, I was angered. The third time I watched this video I was ashamed. I urge you to take a look at social media sometime in the near future.
The problem I find with this video is that now, not only are the actions of the individuals in this video reflections of those individuals, but will now be said to be reflections of "the industry." This a false, at best logical leap of faith, that is being made. The statement that this is just business as usual isn't just false, but disinformation in its finest moment.
Sparboe farms has put up a website and is putting a lot of money into their public relations to increase transparency. They owe it to the rest of us to clean this mess up. I also would like to see an apology to the industry overall, but most of all, I want to see that the employees depicted are never hired in animal agriculture again. It's also time to see the US Poultry and Egg Association, along with other organizations within the industry to come to terms with a complete welfare package. It's time for all of us to stand back and assess our own situations, and our own employees along with ourselves honestly. Healthy livestock are productive livestock. If we cannot honestly state that we are doing everything within our power to ensure, beyond a shadow of a doubt that our animals are as healthy and humanely treated as possible, that we seek out the assistance needed to solve this problem.
Sincerely,
Zachary Bray
Owner/Operator/Farmer
LZ Livestock Company, NC
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Post One...
Welcome to blogging by someone who refused to blog for a long time. So if you're reading this, why would the most boring person in the world start a blog? Well, here's the deal. What you'll find here over time is probably a bunch of small texts that try to sum up long, complex, A.D.H.D. influenced thoughts.
I got the idea for the title on my drive home one day. Every morning, I'm blessed in the fact that I feed cattle as the sun comes up (most of the time). I then come home, I take a shower, grab my coffee mug, and I go to work in the corporate world. I sit behind a computer all day. The job I do isn't that bad, it can be stressful, but it pays the bills, and allows me to have working capital while building up some equity on the farm.
Right now, I do not foresee a move to full-time agriculture. I'll tell how I got into agriculture in my next post. My goal is to make these posts on Sundays. We'll see how that goes.
I got the idea for the title on my drive home one day. Every morning, I'm blessed in the fact that I feed cattle as the sun comes up (most of the time). I then come home, I take a shower, grab my coffee mug, and I go to work in the corporate world. I sit behind a computer all day. The job I do isn't that bad, it can be stressful, but it pays the bills, and allows me to have working capital while building up some equity on the farm.
Right now, I do not foresee a move to full-time agriculture. I'll tell how I got into agriculture in my next post. My goal is to make these posts on Sundays. We'll see how that goes.
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